The following articles were developed in collaboration with a number of partnering organizations, and with funding support awarded to the Harvard School of Public Health Center for Public Health Preparedness under cooperative agreements with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) -- grant numbers 5P01TP000307-01 (Preparedness and Emergency Response Research Center) and U90 TP124242-05 (Centers for Public Health Preparedness). The content of these publications as well as the views and discussions expressed in these papers are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of any partner organizations, the CDC or the US Department of Health and Human Services.
Papers
“Altered Standards of Care during an Influenza Pandemic: Identifying Ethical, Legal, and Practical Principles to Guide Decision Making.” This article was published ahead of press in Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness on September 14, 2009.
Levin D, Cadigan RO, Biddinger PD, Condon S, Koh HK; on behalf of the Joint Massachusetts Department of Public Health-Harvard Altered Standards of Care Working Group.
Although widespread support favors prospective planning for altered standards of care during mass casualty events, the literature includes few, if any, accounts of groups that have formally addressed the overarching policy considerations at the state level. This paper describes the planning process undertaken by public health officials in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, along with community and academic partners, to explore the issues surrounding altered standards of care in the event of pandemic influenza. Throughout 2006, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and the Harvard School of Public Health Center for Public Health Preparedness jointly convened a working group comprising ethicists, lawyers, clinicians, and local and state public health officials to consider issues such as allocation of antiviral medications, prioritization of critical care, and state seizure of private assets. Community stakeholders were also engaged in the process through facilitated discussion of case scenarios focused on these and other issues. The objective of this initiative was to establish a framework and some fundamental principles that would subsequently guide the process of establishing specific altered standards of care protocols. The group collectively identified 4 goals and 7 principles to guide the equitable allocation of limited resources and establishment of altered standards of care protocols. Reviewing and analyzing this process to date may serve as a resource for other states.
“Public Health Emergency Preparedness at the Local Level: Results of a National Survey.” Health Services Research, 2009 Oct; 44 (5 Pt 2):1909-24. E-published 2009 Aug17.
Savoia E, Rodday AM, Stoto MA.
The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between elements of public health infrastructure and local public health emergency preparedness (PHEP).Using cross-sectional data sources from the National Association of County and City Health Officials 2005 National Profile of Local Health Departments (LHDs), the authors found that LHDs serving larger populations are more likely to have staff, capacities, and activities in place for an emergency. By adjusting for population size, the presence of a local board of health and the LHDs' experience in organizing PHEP coalitions were associated with better outcomes. The results of this study suggest that more research should be conducted to investigate the benefit of merging small health departments into coalitions to overcome the inverse relationship between preparedness and population size of the jurisdiction served by the LHD.
“Public Health Systems Research in Emergency Preparedness: A Review of the Literature.” American Journal of Preventive Medicine 37(2): 150-156.
Savoia E, Massin-Short SB, Rodday AM, Aaron LA, Higdon MA, Stoto MA.
Despite the acknowledged promise of developing a public health systems research (PHSR) agenda for emergency preparedness, there has been no systematic review of the literature in this area. The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic literature review in order to identify and characterize the PHSR literature produced in the U.S. in the past 11 years in the field of public health emergency preparedness. Articles were searched in MEDLINE and EMBASE, as well as in the gray literature. Two independent reviewers classified the articles according to study design and IOM public health emergency preparedness (PHEP) research goal areas.
From January 1, 1997, through December 31, 2008, there were 547 articles that met the inclusion criteria that were published. It was possible to classify 314 (57%) articles into at least one of the four IOM PHEP research goal areas. Of these, 61 (11%) addressed Research Area 1 (usefulness of training); 39 (7%) addressed Research Area 2 (communications in preparedness and response); 193 (35%) addressed Research Area 3 (sustainable preparedness and response systems); and 39 (7%) addressed Research Area 4 (criteria and metrics to measure effectiveness and efficiency). Twenty-one studies (4%) could be classified into more than one category. The majority of the articles (81%), including commentaries/reviews and case studies, were based on qualitative analysis. Commentaries/review articles were the most common study types (62%). Since 2001, the PHSR literature on PHEP issues has grown at about 33% per year. However, most studies lack a rigorous design, raising questions about the validity of the results.
“Impact of Tabletop Exercises on Participants’ Knowledge of and Confidence in Legal Authorities for Infectious Disease Emergencies.” Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 2009 v. 3, p. 104-110.
Savoia E, Biddinger PD, Fox P, Levin D, Stone L, Stoto MA.
Legal preparedness is a critical component of comprehensive public health preparedness for public health emergencies. The scope of this study was to assess the usefulness of combining didactic sessions with a tabletop exercise as educational tools in legal preparedness, to assess the impact of the exercise on the participants’ level of confidence about the legal preparedness of a public health system, and to identify legal issue areas in need of further improvement. The exercise scenario and the pre- and post-exercise evaluation were designed to assess knowledge gained and level of confidence in declaration of emergencies, isolation and quarantine, restrictions (including curfew) on the movement of people, closure of public places, and mass prophylaxis, and to identify legal preparedness areas most in need of further improvement at the system level. Fisher exact test and paired t test were performed to compare pre- and post-exercise results.
The analysis shows that a combination of didactic teaching and experiential learning through a tabletop exercise regarding legal preparedness for infectious disease emergencies can be effective in both imparting perceived knowledge to participants and gathering information about sufficiency of authorities and existence of gaps. The exercise provided a valuable forum to judge the adequacy of legal authorities, policies, and procedures for dealing with pandemic influenza at the state and local levels in Massachusetts. In general, participants were more confident about the availability and sufficiency of legal authorities than they were about policies and procedures for implementing them. Participants were also more likely to report the need for improvement in authorities, policies, and procedures in the private sector and at the local level than at the state level.
“Engineering Responses to Pandemics.” This article is in press and will be published in Volume 3 of the Tannebaum Institute Series on Enterprise Systems and in a special issue of the journal Information, Knowledge Systems Management. It will also appear as a chapter in a book of the same title in a series of studies in healthcare technology and informatics.
Larson R, Nigmatulina RK.
Focusing on pandemic influenza, this chapter approaches the planning for and response to such a major worldwide health event as a complex engineering systems problem. Action-oriented analysis of pandemics requires a broad inclusion of academic disciplines since no one domain can cover a significant fraction of the problem. Numerous research papers and action plans have treated pandemics as purely medical happenings, focusing on hospitals, health care professionals, creation and distribution of vaccines and anti-virals, etc. But human behavior with regard to hygiene and social distancing constitutes a first-order partial brake or control of the spread and intensity of infection. Such behavioral options are “non-pharmaceutical interventions.” (NPIs) The chapter employs simple mathematical models to study alternative controls of infection, addressing a well-known parameter in epidemiology, R0, the “reproductive number,” defined as the mean number of new infections generated by an index case. Values of R0 greater than 1.0 usually indicate that the infection begins with exponential growth, the generation-to-generation growth rate being R0. R0 is broken down into constituent parts related to the frequency and intensity of human contacts, both partially under our control. It is suggested that any numerical value for R0 has little meaning outside the social context to which it pertains. Difference equation models are then employed to study the effects of heterogeneity of population social contact rates, the analysis showing that the disease tends to be driven by high frequency individuals. Related analyses show the futility of trying geographically to isolate the disease. Finally, the models are operated under a variety of assumptions related to social distancing and changes in hygienic behavior. The results are promising in terms of potentially reducing the total impact of the pandemic.
Recent Abstracts
Do current surveillance systems provide valid and credible statistical information on 2009-H1N1?
Michael A. Stoto, Ying Zhang, and Melissa A. Higdon
Poster to be presented at the International Conference on Health Policy Statistics, Washington DC, January 2010
The outbreak and rapid world-wide spread of novel A (H1N1) influenza in 2009 came after almost a decade of enhancements to global disease surveillance systems. Yet even with these systems there is reason to question the validity – and the credibility – of the statistical information they provide.
Although establishing a standard case definition is a critical step in an epidemiological outbreak investigation, definitions of suspected, probable, and confirmed cases varied from country to country and changed as the virus spread. Some changes reflected an evolving understanding of the epidemiology, limitations in laboratory capacity and requirements of public health practice. For some of the same reasons, case ascertainment processes varied, but typically focused on more severe cases. As a result, there was substantial uncertainty about virulence and transmissibility of the novel viral strain.
One of the most commonly held assumptions about the novel A (H1N1) virus is that children and young adults are at especially high risk. The data, on which this assumption is based, however, are not reliable, and it is possible that the differential risk for children and adolescents is an exaggeration. In particular, higher age-specific rates for A (H1N1) incidence as well as hospitalizations and deaths, regardless of the source, are biased upwards for children and young adults and downwards for older adults. The degree of this bias is unknown, but comes from a combination of younger patients being more likely to present themselves for medical attention and older patients not having samples sent for laboratory testing. These patterns seem to be due to both patients and physicians responding to what they believe are the facts about the risk of A (H1N1), as well as physicians responding to public health recommendations (based on the same assumptions) regarding who should be tested.
The tendency of public health officials and the media to report cumulative case counts adds to the confusion. Cumulative numbers reflect when cases are reported or confirmed in the laboratory rather than the time of onset. As a result, they reflect patients’ decisions about when to seek care, reporting requirements, laboratory capacity, and statistical processing rather than the incidence of disease in the population. Furthermore, by definition, cumulative numbers can only increase, even when incidence is waning, contributing to a false impression about the pandemic.
School Closures in Response to A/H1N1: Issues for Decision-Makers
Tamar Klaiman, John Kraemer, and Michael A. Stoto, Georgetown University
This abstract will be an oral presentation at the American Public Health Association, Philadelphia in November 2009.
Because schools can be amplifiers of the spread of influenza and children seem to be particularly vulnerable to its complications, hundreds of U.S. schools closed in response to the 2009 A/H1N1 outbreaks in the spring of 2009. This experience surfaced a number of challenges that can have important implications for the capability of the broader public health system to respond to pandemics and other public health emergencies. In an in-depth case study based on media reports, observations of public health meetings, and discussions with decision-makers, we will address: the goals of school closure, what closure means in practice, whether to close schools, who makes the closure decision, and when schools should re-open. Implications of these various challenges will be reviewed and considerations for decision-makers in future public health emergencies will be presented.